(CNN)The United States looks increasingly unlikely to reach President Joe Biden’s July 4 vaccine goal. We need at least 70% of all adults to have one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, and we’re on pace to have somewhere between 67% and 68%.
The overall picture masks, however, an underlying pattern: Nearly all of the states Biden won will make his goal, while all of the states he lost are unlikely to.
The vaccine partisan divide among adults is greater than ever currently. As of Thursday’s CDC report, 69.9% of adults in the average Biden-won state have received at least one dose, meaning those states have basically already reached Biden’s goal with more than a little over three weeks to go.
Compare this to the states Biden lost and Donald Trump won, where an average 54.9% of adults have received at least one dose. The Trump-won states aren’t anywhere close to where the Biden-won states are. You’d have to go back more than a month for the Biden-won states to be averaging a vaccination rate as low as the Trump-won states.
When you break it down by individual states, 13 of the 25 states Biden took last fall have hit the 70% mark. An additional 7 states have at least 67% of all adults with one dose, so they’ll likely reach the 70% threshold by the time July 4 rolls around.
There are zero states that Trump took last fall that have at least 67% of adults with at least one vaccine dose. The closest is Nebraska at 62.8%, which is lower than all but four states Biden won (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada).
The only Biden-won states that likely won’t reach the mark were among the very closest in the last election: Wisconsin a
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